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ADDENDUM
WEEK 28, 2017, FRIDAY JULY 14TH:

SEE TODAY'S
CURRENTLY UPDATED ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS INTRADAY AND INTRAWEEK SCENARIO SETUP OPPORTUNITY INDICATOR PIVOT POINT PRICE PROJECTIONS AND TIMEPERIODS, AND ECHOVECTOR ANAYSIS SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE VECTORS HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED, AND ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FORECAST OPPORTUNITY DIRECTIONAL PRICE EXTENSION BIASES AND OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED

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KEY EVA TIME CYCLE LENGTHS

USM US MARKET
EUM EUROPEAN MARKET
ASM ASIAN MARKET
O OPEN
C CLOSE

EUMO-EUNC CYCLE

USMO-USMC CYCLE
ASMO-ASMC CYCLE
EUMO-USMO CYCLE
USMO-EUMC CYCLE
ASMC-EUMC CYCLE
ASMC-USMO CYCLE
ASMO-USMO CYCLE
ASMO-EUMO CYCLE
EUMO-USMC CYCLE

1HOUREV
2HOUREV
4HOUREV
6HOUREV
12HOUREV
24HOUREV
48HOUREV
72HOUREV

WEV (WEEKLY CYCLE)
2WEV (2-WEEK CYCLE)
MEV (MONTHLY CYCLE),
2MEV(2-MONTH CYCLE)
QEV (QUARTERLY CYCLE)
2QEV (BI-QUARTERLY CYCLE)
AEV (1-YEAR ANNUAL CYCLE)
CCEV (2-YEAR US CONGRESSIONAL CYCLE)
PCEV (4-YEAR US PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE)
RCCEV (8-YEAR US REGIME CHANGE CYCLE)
MTEV (16-YEAR MATURITY CYCLE)


PERSPECTIVES HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED

WITH KEY ACTIVE EBWs, EBDs, CFEVS, AND OTAPS-PPS TARGET VECTORS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED


EXAMPLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS TUTORIAL FOCUS FORECAST FRAMECHART PERSPECTIVES AND ACTIVE ADVANCED POSITION AND RISK MANAGEMENT SCENARIO SETUP OPPORTUNITY INDICATOR GUIDMAP GRIDS -- NOW FREE ONLINE FOR 2017!

Wednesday, 12 March 2014

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BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS
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METHODOLOGY NOTES
"EchoVector Theory and EchoVector Analysis assert that a securities prior price patterns may influence its present and future price patterns. Present and future price patterns may then, in part, be considered as 'echoing' these prior price patterns to some identifiable and measurable degree.
EchoVector Analysis is also used to forecast and project potential price Pivot Points (referred to as PPP's --potential pivot points, or EVPP's --EchoVector Pivot Points) and active, past and future coordinate forecast echovector support and resistance echovectors (SREV's) for a security from a starting reference price at a starting reference time, based on the securities prior price pattern within a given and significant and definable cyclical time frame.
EchoVector Pivot Points and EchoVector Support and Resistance Vectors are fundamental components of EchoVector Analysis. EchoVector SREV's are constructed from key components in the EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation. EchoVector SREV's are defined and calculated and also referred to as Coordinate Forecast EchoVectors (CFEV's) to the initial EchoVector (XEV) calculation and construction, where X designates not only the time length of the EchoVector XEV, but also the time length of XEV's CFEVs. The EchoVector Pivot Points are found as the endpoints of XEV's CFEVs' calculations and the CFEVs' constructions.
The EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation is a fundamentally different and more advanced calculation than the traditional pivot point calculation.
The EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation differs from traditional pivot point calculation by reflecting this given and specified cyclical price pattern length and reference, and its significance and information, within the pivot point calculation. This cyclical price pattern and reference is included in the calculations and constructions of the echovector and its respective coordinate forecast echovectors, as well as in the calculation of the related echovector pivot points.
While a traditional pivot point calculation may use simple price averages of prior price highs, lows and closes indifferent to their sequence in time to calculate its set of support and resistance levels, the echovector pivot point calculation begins with any starting time and price point and respective cyclical time frame reference X, and then identifies the corresponding "Echo-Back-Date-TimeAndPrice-Point (EBD-TPP)" within this cyclical time frame reference coordinate to the starting reference price and time point A. It then calculates the echovector (XEV) generated by the starting reference time/price point and the echo-back-date-timeandprice-point, and includes the pre-determined and pre-defined accompanying constellation of "Coordinate Forecast EchoVector" origins derived from the prior price pattern evidenced around the echo-back-date-timeandprice-point within a certain pre-selected and specified range (time and/or price version) that occurred within the particular referenced cyclical time-frame and period X. Security I's EchoVector Pivot Point constructions then calculate and project the scope relative echovector pivot points that follow A, and the support and resistance levels determined by the ensuing coordinate forecast echovectors and their selected range definition inclusion (fully differentiating the time-sequence of the origins), the cyclical time-frame X, and to XEV's slope.
EchoVector Pivot Points are therefore advanced and fluid calculations and effective endpoints of projected coordinate forecast echovector support and resistance time/price levels, projections that are constructed from and follow in time from the starting reference price, time/price point A (echovector endpoint) of the initial subject focus echovector construction, and which occur within an EchoVector Pivot Point Price Projection Parallelogram construct: levels which are derived from coordinate (support and/or resistance) forecast echovectors calculated from particular 'scope and range defined' starting times and price points reflecting the time and price points of proximate scale and scope and time/price pivoting action that followed the initial subject focus interest echovector's echo-back-date-time-price-point B (derived from and relative to the initial subject focus echovector's starting time-point and price-point A, and the echovector's given and specified cyclically-based focus interest time-span X, and the initial subject focus echovector's subsequently derived slope relative momentum measures).
The EchoVector Support and Resistance Vectors, referred to as the Coordinate Forecast Echovectors, are used to generate the EchoVector Pivot Points."
From "Introduction to EchoVector Analysis And EchoVector Pivot Points" COPYRIGHT 2013 ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS

DEFINITION: THE ECHOVECTOR 

"For any base security I at price/time point A, A having real market transaction and exchange recorded print price p at exchange of record print time t, then EchoVector XEV of security I and of time length (cycle length) X with ending time/price point A would be designated and described as (I, Apt, XEV); EchoVector XEV's end point is (I, Apt) and EchoVector XEV's starting point is (I, Ap-N, t-X), where N is the found exchange recorded print price difference between A and the Echo-Back-Date-Time-And-Price-Point of A, being (A, p-N, t-X) of Echo-Back-Time-Length X (being Echo- Period Cycle Length X).

A, p-n, t-X shall be called B (or B of I), being the EBDTPP (Echo-Back-Date-Time-And-Price-Point)*, or EBD (Echo-Back-Date)*, or EBTP (Echo-Back-Time-Point) of A of I. 


N = the difference of p at A and p at B (B being the 'echo-back-date-time-and-price-point of A found at (A, p-N, t-X.)

And security I (I, Apt, XEV) shall have an echo-back-time-point (EBTP) of At-X (or I-A-EBTP of At-X; or echo-back-date (EBD) I-A-EBD of At-X): t often displayed on a chart measured and referenced in discrete d measurement length units (often OHLC or candlestick widthed and lengthed units[often bars or blocks]), such as 1-minute, 5-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, hourly, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 8-hour, daily, weekly, etc."


DEFINITION: ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINTS: CLICK HERE 
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CURRENT POST

CURRENT POST
ANALYSIS, ALERTS, OTAPS SIGNALS, CHART ILLUSTRATIONS, AND COMMENTARY

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

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12PMDST UPDATE


1153AMDST

1158AMDST



Wednesday, March 12, 2014


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1055AMDST

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7-DAY 15-MINUTE OHLC SIMPLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS CONSTRUCT PERSPECTIVE HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED
933AMDST


939AMDST

944AMDST

950AMDST
  953AMDST

SHORT-TERM TRADE ALERT COVER SIGNAL DIA ETF $162.55 PEB


Tuesday, March 11, 2014


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/es 455pm dst




ALERT: QUARTERLY CYCLE ECHOVECTOR AND WEEKLY CYCLE ECHOVECTOR ALERT: POTENTIAL RELATIVE STRENGTH WEAKNESS FOR COMING WEEK STARTING TUESDAY


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The American Political Economic Cycle And The Current Melt-Up in Stocks: A Powerfully Revealing EchoVector Analysis of the Current 5-Year Bull Market In Stocks And An Update Of The Article "Don't Fight The Fed"


Kevin Wilbur

Summary
  • The bull market is ready to celebrate its 5TH anniversary, but how much longer will the bull run?
  • The modern era in market structures, market participation, and advanced forecasting techniques may help generate its own momentum.
  • The Federal Reserve leads a significant coordinated global central bank intervention to stabilize and support the stock market during the 2012 presidential midterm election year.
  • An inspection of stock market prices reveals a pattern of significant melt-up after the midterm election year in last three US Administrations, the era of the Internet.
  • The stock market momentum (EchoVector Momentum Indicator) that follows from the post presidential midterm election year and runs through all three administrations is still right on course, and offers a strong indicator to this year's forecast.  See April 1997 to April 2005 to April 2013.
  • Prices may now appear toppy, but coordinate symmetry transposition from the last two regime change cycles also supports the case an an additional up-wave from this coming Fall's price lows.  Will fall lows be higher or lower than the current price level this March, and what might investors and traders do next to prepare?
ARTICLE

BACKGROUND
This week several analyst have published articles celebrating the markets 5-year bull run since the lows of the great 2008-2009 sell-of the second week of March 2009. Few bull markets have last longer than five years. What I find interesting is many of these each article's primarily thesis is on the technicals, and assessing longer term historical bull market lengths and measures.  One even states "Part of what makes it so difficult to forecast what is going to happen next right now is history's lack of clear insight."  This often gets mentioned in periods of price over-extension, whether up or down.  I do not agree with this assessment, and believe instead that history does give insight if you are looking in the right place and within the right contextual and analytic framework.
Perhaps a closer review of shorter-term history covering the last 20 years might give us important new insight into where the market may go from here. A review that also takes into account the political economic cycles as well as key and consistent market momentum indicators, while also considering internationally coordinated central bank imperatives and interventions.  Also accounting for, and contexting, vast structural changes in market evolution is important
Dramatic structural changes in the stock market through the last 20 years, and an explosion in market participation during the age of the Internet have occurred. Windows 95 has a 20 year birthday coming up.  So it's not the market your grandfather use to trade, if he traded one at all.  Broad market participation across the globe is also expanding.  The evolution in market structure, in market participation, and in analytic tools and  techniques has been breathtaking.    All three of these evolving market components lend themselves to the development of new analytic frameworks in understanding market price dynamics and forecasting.  This is especially the case within the overall advancement of computer supported market analysis, black box investing approaches, and the ever accelerating and voluminous information age. 
I believe a different and closer inspection of the market focusing on the political economic cycle, and specifically the last three presidential administration cycles and the 2 years following the midterm presidential elections, and recent key central bank price stabilization imperatives, and the utilization of the EchoVector Market Momentum Indicator through these periods, may be particularly useful now in framing a valid understanding  where the market may move next.
THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND STABILIZING MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR PRICES

In August of 2012 I wrote an article examining the Federal Reserve Bank's interest in avoiding excessive market volatility in the a presidential midterm election year of 2012, and instead the Bank wanting to be a significant and effective force and national institution promoting economic stability and economic encouragement to the American electorate during that important political economic and financially sensitive time. In that article, titled Don't Fight The Fed, I explained how the US Federal Reserve Bank lead a global central bank coordinated and orchestrated effort to support stock prices and the wealth effect with a Federal Reserve Bank generated composite stock market price support level bridge during one of the most vulnerable periods in the political economic cycle. Supporting composite stock market price levels and preventing potentially ensuing cyclical price level erosion, and positively trajecting prices further upward instead, was the purpose of this coordinated global central bank intervention.

This article is a follow-up of my previous article. In it I would like to focus on, and to review, how large cap composite equity prices have in fact responded to this past mid-term American presidential election cycle globally coordinated central bank intervention which occurred in the summer of 2012 within the US political economic cycle, and to take a closer look at the current market price level trajectory induced by the central bank when viewed within the context and the time span of stock market price levels over the last three 8-year American presidential regimes: the Clinton regime, the Bush regime, and now the Obama regime.

A LOOK AT THE LAST THREE US PRESIDENTIAL ADMINISTRATIONS' POST MIDTERM ELECTION MELT-UPS IN STOCKS

Let's begin by looking at the following 20-year price track of the S&P 500 Composite Stock Index as reflected a proxy chart of the popular /ES E-mini Futures on that index.

S&P 500 Stock Composite Index /ES E-mini Futures 20-Year Monthly OHLC Perspective
(click to enlarge)

In the chart above note the key white 16-year market financial cycle echovector running from The April 1, 1997, the echobackdate and year following the Clinton Administration mid-term election year, to the April 1 2005 echobackdate and year following the Bush Administration mid-term election year, to the April 1 2013 echovector start date, and year following the Obama Administration mid-term election year.

Notice also the general horizontal price resistance level highlighted in white running from the Clinton Regime's price level toppiness in year 2000 to the Bush Regime price level toppiness in year 2007 to the late spring and summer time sell in May and go away period of the Obama Regime in 2013.

In May of 2013 prices had faltered at this critical time and price level and fell nearly 10% into June. Rallying off the June lows prices began to fall back again in August, potentially setting up a toppy formation much like that in 2007.

It was in the Federal Reserve Bank's genuine interest, and in The Federal Reserve Bank Chairman's focus, his specialty, and his legacy interest, to prevent another market collapse reminiscent of 2008 or 2001-2002, and this seasonal price pressure weakness from accelerating into a more precarious market price phenomena and political economic market cycle echo. And the central bank's ensuing coordinated efforts to place a bridge under stock market prices that summer could not have been more effective nor better timed for this purpose.
The bridge in place, and holding well into November, and that month's returning annual and congressional cycle lows kicking in, with them occurring at these upper and bridged supported price levels, set the stage for significantly better price level momentum trajectory than otherwise, and eventual price level resistance breakthrough and price melt-up, in lieu of price level collapse. Whereas these last three regime mid-term election years appear characterized by little price progress going into July after their first quarter highs, the year that follows, being year 5 in the existing administration's regime change cycle, holds onto momentum price gains on both a year-over-year basis and on a 2-year congressional cycle basis. The latter being even stronger, accelerating prices even further and propelling them into melt-up. This effect was anticipated in my article of August 2012, and has been central to my positive market forecast since.

OUTLOOK

Some analyst have been calling for a pullback from high's this quarter into lower lows this fall, with a bounce back to higher highs going into next year. The above analysis would tend to support such an outlook.

However, currently vigilance and caution at the high price level present may be the better part of wisdom. We have gained over 44% on the S&P since August 2012, and have completed what might be viewed, at best, as the first half of a melt-up that occurs before a potential second wave of melt-up cyclically begins in the second half of this year. Be mindful that sometimes the market, anticipating far enough into the future cyclically, seems to rush to get there early, accomplishing momentum over-extension. This might have also, in part, contributed to the drama of 2008 with regard to downside extension.

At this time within this regime change cycle within the political economic cycle, and at current price levels, my suggestion is to remain nimble, and to let the best price extension scenario evolve, but to also remain ready to lock in gains through hedging utilities in the event of scope relative counter-cyclical occurrences, and to do so possibly right up into the second quarter of next year.

One way to accomplish being nimble would be to set up an active and adjustable OTAPS position polarity switch and straddle to manage your general stock market exposure to any potential changes in the general price level momentum and your forward outlook. Setting straddles at momentum echovector switch level prices is an effective and opportune measure and advanced trade and position management strategy.

One way to employ such a straddle would be to utilize the SPY ETF and/or the DIA ETF. By setting up an advanced trade technology (see "On-Off-Through Vector Target Price Switch") at, for example, $190 on the SPY or at $166 on the DIA, with appropriate dynamic triggers and stops included, such a straddle can be employed.

To perform the short side of the straddle, set a short trigger below either of these mentioned target price switch levels (e.g., $190 on the SPY and/or $166 on the DIA) pre-programmed as a "repeating short trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse down-tick action through the trigger price, with stops set to activate on reverse uptick up-through action.

To perform the long side of the straddle, set a long trigger above either of these the target price switch levels ($190 on the SPY and/or $166 on the DIA) pre-programmed as a "repeating long trigger switch" at the trigger level on reverse uptick action through the trigger, with stops set to activate on reverse down-tick down-through action.

Now may be a very good time to employ this general market straddle and this more advanced trade technology switch and active position management methodology, especially when reviewing the proxy chart of the S&P 500 over the past 20 years within the current presidential regime change cycle.

Thanks for reading. And Godspeed in your investing.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Kevin Wilbur
Contributor, Alpha Brand Newsletters Group
Chief Market Strategist And EchoVector Analysis Methodologist 
                 PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCVEST

Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the Chief Market Strategist and Senior EchoVector Analysis Methodologist at PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST. He is a prize-winning Economist and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.


Search market pivots to read more about Kevin John Bradford Wilbur and his specialty,and about THE MARKET ALPHA BRAND NEWSLETTER GROUP.

For further information on constructing and calculating echovectors, coordinate forecast echovectors, and echovector pivot points, see "The Simple Single-Period EchoVector Pivot Point Calculation".

For further information on constructing and calculating otaps-pps position polarity cover and/or switch signal vectors and their trigger points, see "The On-Off-Through Vector Target Application Price Switch And Position Polarity Cover And/Or Switch Signal Vector Trigger Points".

See THE MARKET PIVOTS FORECASTER AND POSITION MANAGEMENT NEWSLETTER for further updates that might develop regarding this analysis.

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Thursday, March 6, 2014


/ES EMINI FUTURES ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS FRAMCHART UPDATE: S&P500 STOCK COMPOSITE INDEX /ES EMINI FUTURES: FRIDAY 7 MARCH 2014 220AM EST: EUROPEAN PRE-MARKET HOURS






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Wednesday, March 5, 2014

S&P500 STOCK COMPOSITE INDEX /ES EMINI FUTURES ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS FRAMECHART AND OTAPS-PPS POSITION POLARITY SWITCH TARGET PRICE FORECAST GUIDEMAP UPDATES: WEDNESDAY 5 MARCH 2014 333PM EST: US MARKET AFTERNOON HOURS

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/ES 315PMEST

/ES 330PMEST

BONUS CHART

SPX 333PMEST
20-YEAR WEEKLY OHLC ADVANCED ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS FRAMECHART


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Wednesday, March 5, 2014

S&P500 STOCK COMPOSITE INDEX /ES EMINI FUTURES ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS FRAMECHART AND OTAPS-PPS POSITION POLARITY SWITCH TARGET PRICE FORECAST GUIDEMAP UPDATES: WEDNESDAY 5 MARCH 2014 300AM EST: EUROPEAN MARKET MORNING HOURS

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AND

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/ES S&P500 E-MINI FUTURES 2-YEAR DAILY OHLC 

/ES S&P500 E-MINI FUTURES 1-YEAR DAILY OHLC 

/ES S&P500 E-MINI FUTURES 6-MONTH DAILY OHLC 


/ES S&P500 E-MINI FUTURES 3-MONTH DAILY OHLC 



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Tuesday, March 4, 2014


S&P500 STOCK COMPOSITE INDEX /ES EMINI FUTURES ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS FRAMECHART AND OTAPS-PPS POSITION POLARITY SWITCH TARGET PRICE FORECAST GUIDEMAP UPDATES: TUESDAY 4 MARCH 2014 1010AM EST: US MARKET MORNING HOURS: MONTHLY ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE FRAMECHART UPDATE

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Stocks: QQQPSQQLDQIDIWMRWMUWMUKKTWMDIADOG,DDMDXDTLTTLHIEFUUPUDNGLDGTUDGZUGLDZZGLL,IAUSGOLSLVDBSAGQZSLCUPALLPPLTVXXUVXYXIV,TVIXXLITNASPXUIVVTQQQSQQQSPLVSPYSSOSDS

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

/ES S&P500 E-MINI FUTURES 1-MONTH HOURLY OHLC 
KEY CYCLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVES HIGHLIGHTED 
FROM KEY SELECT STARTING BASE TIME/PRICE POINT 6AM MONDAY 2 FEB 2014
4-WEEK: PINK
3-WEEK: GREY 
2-WEEK: YELLOW
1-WEEK:  WHITE

ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS MONTHLY FRAMECHART PERSPECTIVE
BASE PERSPECTIVE START POINT: 
6AM MONDAY 2 FEB 2014

WITH KEY CYCLE LENGTH ECHOBACKDATETIMEANDPRICE POINTS
HIGHLIGHTED AND ILLUSTRATED


Monday, February 24, 2014


S&P500 STOCK COMPOSITE INDEX /ES EMINI FUTURES ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS FRAMECHART AND OTAPS-PPS POSITION POLARITY SWITCH TARGET PRICE FORECAST GUIDEMAP UPDATES: MONDAY 24 FEBRUARY 2014 1014PM EST: ASIAN MARKET MORNING HOURS: QUARTERLY ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE FRAMECHART UPDATE

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FOR FURTHER AND MOST RECENT AND TIMELY FREE ONLINE PUBLIC RELEASE UPDATES SEE
AND

RSS FEEDS AVAILABLE


Stocks: QQQPSQQLDQIDIWMRWMUWMUKKTWMDIADOG,DDMDXDTLTTLHIEFUUPUDNGLDGTUDGZUGLDZZGLL,IAUSGOLSLVDBSAGQZSLCUPALLPPLTVXXUVXYXIV,TVIXXLITNASPXUIVVTQQQSQQQSPLVSPYSSOSDS

CLICK ON CHARTS TO ENLARGE

/ES S&P500 E-MINI FUTURES 5-YEAR DAILY OHLC 
WITH 4-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE HIGHLIGHTED


WITH 6-MONTH BI-QUARTERLY ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE HIGHLIGHTED


WITH 3-MONTH QUARTERLY ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE HIGHLIGHTED

WITH WEEKLY AND DAILY ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE HIGHLIGHTED


SPY L1 OPTION RIDER VEHICLES - LONG SIDE- CALLS - WEEKLYS

SPY L1 OPTION RIDER VEHICLES - SHORT SIDE- PUTS - WEEKLYS

BONUS FRAMECHARTS

/ES FUTURES ECHOVECTOR PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS FRAMECHART 
PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE ECHOVECTOR ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE 

/ES S&P500 E-MINI FUTURES 5-YEAR DAILY OHLC WITH PCEVAP

ZOOMED
FEB 2010

FEB 2014

"WE'RE KEEPING WATCH FOR YOU"

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